Parlay Pals / How it works

How Parlay Pals works

Parlay Pals is a multi-sport prediction and parlay-analysis dashboard. It covers MLB, NFL, NBA and NHL in one interface, and every number on it is computed from real data. It is informational, not betting advice, and not a money printer.

Win probability: model, market and blend

For each game, Parlay Pals shows a transparent blend of two things: a stats model built from team records and a home-field bump for the sport, and the sportsbook line with the bookmaker's margin (the vig) removed. The board shows all three numbers, labelled model, market and blend, so you can see where they agree and where they do not.

Prop legs, honestly tagged

Each game carries a catalog of legs such as moneyline, spread or run line, and totals. For MLB it also lists the announced starting pitchers. Every leg carries one of three tags:

• MODEL: our computed probability.
• MARKET: a sportsbook line, shown with its implied probability.
• KNOWN: a deterministic fact, such as who starts the game. It is not a prediction.

Some props people ask for, like the first touchdown scorer, are near coin-flips with no real predictive edge. Parlay Pals does not present those as if they were knowable, so the catalog only includes data-backed legs.

Today's Three: the Definite, the Maybe and the Crazy

From today's real board, Parlay Pals builds three parlays priced on a $1 stake:

• The Definite: the safest stack of favorites. It is closest to a lock, but it is still not 100% and it barely pays.
• The Maybe: a real gamble with real upside and a real chance of landing.
• The Crazy: a moonshot built from long-shot underdogs and aimed at a return around $1,000,000 on $1. The honest probability is roughly one in a million.

Only games that carry a real DraftKings line qualify, so each payout is the genuine sportsbook price rather than a model-implied estimate.

The parlay slip and +EV math

Tap legs to build your own parlay. The slip combines them, compares the model's combined probability with the book's implied probability, works out the decimal payout and flags a leg set as +EV where the model thinks the price is too generous. Legs from the same game are combined assuming independence, and the app says so.

Live updates and news

The board re-polls the active league every 45 seconds and pauses when the tab is hidden, so live scores and odds update in place. An intel ticker shows league headlines (roster moves, injuries, off-field stories) as soft context, kept separate from the stats.

The Ledger and the Model Lab

The Ledger records how the model's reads did against results. Reads logged before a game are marked live, and reads settled after the fact are marked retro. The Model Lab is a soccer backtest built on the open-source georgedouzas/sports-betting library, run walk-forward over thousands of matches across the top five European leagues.

Data sources

• ESPN's public site API for scoreboards, records, team stats, DraftKings odds and news across all four leagues.
• MLB StatsAPI for MLB probable pitchers and deeper game data.

Accounts and Pro

The board is open to everyone. Signing in uses passkeys. A paid Pro tier adds Auto-Pilot, which scans every game for spots where the model beats the book and auto-builds a +EV value parlay. Auto-Pilot only finds and routes: it never places a real-money bet for you.

Markets are sharp. The model's value comes from disagreeing with the book in specific, measurable spots, not from knowing winners. Read responsible play before you bet, then open the board.